Congressional District Apportionment of Presidential Electors

and the probably effect on certain legislative races in 2008.


To hear audio of Paul Stam's speech against Senate Bill 353, click the link below.
SB-353-Paul-Stam

The House Election Law and Campaign Finance Reform Committee is scheduled to consider Senate Bill 353 “Presidential Electors by District.” If enacted, the General Assembly will be apportioning 13 Electors to the winner of the 2008 presidential tally in their respective Congressional Districts, with the remaining 2 Electors allocated to the statewide winner of that same national contest.

While no official tally of the results of presidential contests by congressional district exists, unofficial results have been tallied and a comparative formula applied to estimate presidential vote within congressional districts, including results from split precincts. Should the Legislature apportion 13 of North Carolina’s 15 Electors to reflect the winner of presidential contests within the respective congressional districts a new dynamic in the allocation of resources from the national presidential committees will come into play.

Incumbent members of the General Assembly may well be faced with locally applied national resources. The present winner-take-all arrangement forces national campaigns to apply a large but still limited amount of resources to those areas of the state where 85 percent of the voting population resides and votes. Congressional district apportionment of Presidential Electors, however, would redirect resources and GOTV efforts to congressional districts where the partisan results of national vote and legislative voting regularly differ.

Under the congressional district Elector apportionment proposal, based on past presidential tally performance, national Republicans can count on garnering 2 at-large Electors and 8 Electors from winning presidential tallies outright in most congressional districts. Similarly, Democrats can count on winning 3 Electors from congressional district tallies, leaving 2 Electors as toss-ups. Of the two toss-ups, the Elector from the 7th Congressional District will probably go to the Republicans, leaving the 13th Congressional District as a true “toss-up.”

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